Illinois Leading Political Publication Says Burns Surges Ahead

BURNS HAS NARROW LEAD IN CROWDED FIELD Former Senate Democratic staffer Will Burns has surged into the lead against a crowded field of candidates who are hoping to defeat Rep. Elga Jefferies (D-Chicago).

A poll conducted yesterday by XPS/Ask Illinois of 1,412 likely Democratic primary voters has Burns with 22.3 percent. That puts him ahead of Kenny Johnson, who has 19.1 percent. Johnson is backed by Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr.

A poll conducted for Johnson's campaign between January 11th and 13th had Johnson with 20 percent, so the Capitol Fax poll tracks with that result. Burns scored just 9 percent in Johnson's poll, so Burns' radio advertising and recent mail program appear to be taking hold. The Capitol Fax poll taken yesterday had a margin of error of ±2.59 percent.

Phillip Jackson is in third place in the Capitol Fax poll with 17.2 percent (Johnson's poll had Jackson at 16 percent). Rep. Jefferies was in fourth place with 11.6 percent (Johnson's poll had Jefferies with 3 percent, but Jefferies is now doing some mail and the election is closer), and Paul Chadha trailed the field with 7.3 percent.

More voters say they are undecided about this race - 22.5 percent - than say they are for any individual candidate. The closeness of the two top candidates combined with the resources dumped into their respective campaigns could mean a close finish, even though Burns does appear to be surging. Also, Phillip Jackson should always be watched closely. The mathematical probability that Burns currently leads Johnson is a bit under 97 percent.

About 15 percent of voters believed that Rep. Jefferies was part of the problem in Springfield and should be voted out of office, while another 5.2 percent thought she was part of the problem and deserved to be reelected. 19.4 percent said she was not part of the problem and 60.3 percent were unsure.